Past starts are scored against tonight's line, not the one posted that night. Amber is our number sitting further from the market than it can plausibly be right.
Across 728 graded projections the average miss is 2.19 strikeouts. Taking the posted line at face value missed by 1.81. The line is closer than we are, which is the expected result and is published either way. Of the 241 starters we actually leaned on, 46.9% landed on the side we called — 50% is a coin flip.