NFL

Patriots @ Bears

8:15 PM ET

BEA win prob 55%

market 59%no edge

Game detail +

PAT

4–2

L10 4-2W3

BEA

4–2

L10 4-2W1

Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

Head to head 2024

Patriots lead the season series 1–0

19.0 runs/g3.0 runs/g

Nov 1019–3

Green = Patriots won · last Nov 10, PAT 19–3

The scoreboard for the numbers

Are we calibrated?

When we say a team wins 60% of the time, does it? Every rated game on this board counts — not just the ones we bet.

35–45%

9 games

within noise
said 39.8 · won 66.7

45–50%

6 games

we were too high
said 49.1 · won 0.0

50–55%

7 games

within noise
said 52.2 · won 42.9

55–60%

5 games

within noise
said 57.4 · won 40.0

60–65%

4 games

within noise
said 63.4 · won 50.0

65%+

21 games

within noise
said 73.1 · won 61.9

what we said what actually happened the range chance alone explains

Across 55 graded ratings our Brier score is 0.2502. Always saying 50% scores 0.250, so lower than that is the minimum bar for being worth reading. The market scored 0.2400 on the same 55 games — its own vig-free number taken at the moment we rated the game, not the closing price — so we are worse than it. Being worse is the expected outcome and we publish it either way.