Monday, October 19, 2026 · 2 club-games projected
Team runs, first 7 innings
What each lineup should score through seven, against tonight's starter, that club's bullpen, and the park. Match the rung to the line your book is offering.
CLE
8:08 PM ET
at TB
· F. Peralta · 4.42 ERA · Tropicana Field
Projected
3.5runs
Over 2.557%
Over 3.542%
Over 4.530%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup0.98×
Starter, 5.3 innings of it1.05×
Bullpen, the other 1.70.96×
Park1.00×
TB
8:08 PM ET
vs CLE
· S. Armstrong · 4.58 ERA · Tropicana Field
Projected
3.5runs
Over 2.556%
Over 3.541%
Over 4.529%
How this was built +
How the number was built
League, through 73.48
This lineup1.00×
Starter, 5.2 innings of it1.02×
Bullpen, the other 1.80.91×
Park1.00×
Graded
Off by 1.97 runs on average, over 278 graded club-games. Flat league average: 2.03. Ours is closer.
Projected 0–3 · 802.74 → 2.73
Projected 3–3.75 · 1463.36 → 3.40
Projected 3.75–4.5 · 434.10 → 3.16
Projected 4.5+ · 95.10 → 5.56
Projected → scored. The clubs we put highest have to actually score most, or the number is the league average wearing a disguise.
Over 2.5 · 278 graded54% → 54%
Over 3.5 · 278 graded39% → 40%
Over 4.5 · 278 graded27% → 25%
Said → happened. A probability is only a price if the clubs given 44% went over about 44% of the time.